(bloomberg.com) Tudor Investment Corp., the $10.8 billion hedge-fund firm run by Paul Tudor Jones, said equity markets could decline later this year, creating buying opportunities.
Slowing growth in China and the return of front-page stories on swine flu may be “further catalysts for global equity markets to pause in September,” the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm said in an Aug. 3 client letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.
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Sunday, August 9, 2009
You're An INVESTOR? How Quaint
(businessinsider.com) James Montier (via John Mauldin) observes that the average holding period for New York Stock Exchange stocks is now down to six months.
We imagine this has something to do with the boom in high-frequency trading, in which stocks are sometimes held for all of six seconds. But week-to-week performance benchmarking of professional fund managers probably has a lot to do with it, too.
In any event, can we please stop pretending that what most fund managers are doing every day is "investing"? Holding stocks for six months isn't investing. It's trading. And because trading is a negative-sum game--one largely focused on trying to figure out what everyone else is doing--it is really speculating.
Read the entire story
We imagine this has something to do with the boom in high-frequency trading, in which stocks are sometimes held for all of six seconds. But week-to-week performance benchmarking of professional fund managers probably has a lot to do with it, too.
In any event, can we please stop pretending that what most fund managers are doing every day is "investing"? Holding stocks for six months isn't investing. It's trading. And because trading is a negative-sum game--one largely focused on trying to figure out what everyone else is doing--it is really speculating.
Read the entire story
Paulson’s Calls to Goldman Tested Ethics
Just as we suspected......
(nytimes.com) Before he became President George W. Bush’s Treasury secretary in 2006, Henry M. Paulson Jr. agreed to hold himself to a higher ethical standard than his predecessors. He not only sold all his holdings in Goldman Sachs, the investment bank he had run, but also specifically said that he would avoid any substantive interaction with Goldman executives for his entire term unless he first obtained an ethics waiver from the government.
Read the entire article
(nytimes.com) Before he became President George W. Bush’s Treasury secretary in 2006, Henry M. Paulson Jr. agreed to hold himself to a higher ethical standard than his predecessors. He not only sold all his holdings in Goldman Sachs, the investment bank he had run, but also specifically said that he would avoid any substantive interaction with Goldman executives for his entire term unless he first obtained an ethics waiver from the government.
Read the entire article
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Secular bear, cyclical bull
(marketwatch.com) I'm referring, of course, to the debate over what kind of bull market began on March 9.
If that day represented a once-in-a-generation stock market low -- such as the kind seen in December 1974, for example -- then we're in a secular bull market that can be expected to last for many years and which will eventually take the stock market averages to a final top that is several times current levels.
Or did it mark a mere "cyclical" low, in which our expectations, both in terms of time as well as price, need to be far more modest?
For guidance I turn to Ned Davis, the eponymous head of institutional research firm Ned Davis Research.
Read the entire story
If that day represented a once-in-a-generation stock market low -- such as the kind seen in December 1974, for example -- then we're in a secular bull market that can be expected to last for many years and which will eventually take the stock market averages to a final top that is several times current levels.
Or did it mark a mere "cyclical" low, in which our expectations, both in terms of time as well as price, need to be far more modest?
For guidance I turn to Ned Davis, the eponymous head of institutional research firm Ned Davis Research.
Read the entire story
Monday, July 27, 2009
Friday, July 24, 2009
Please Stop With The "Bill Miller Is Back" Stories
(clusterstock.com) Once a media darling, always a media darling, at least in the world of high-profile, money manager gurus.
Today the Journal comes back to Legg Mason manager Bill Miller: "Blindsided by Bear, Mr. Miller Sees Bull."
The subtitle should be: "Long-only, high-beta investor does well when the market goes up."
Read the entire article
Today the Journal comes back to Legg Mason manager Bill Miller: "Blindsided by Bear, Mr. Miller Sees Bull."
The subtitle should be: "Long-only, high-beta investor does well when the market goes up."
Read the entire article
Buffett’s Goldman Stake Pays Richly
(nytimes/dealbook blog) Warren E. Buffett showed again why he is known as one of the world’s best investors, thanks in part to another prominent investor, Goldman Sachs.
Mr. Buffett’s stake in Goldman is now worth $9.1 billion, or about $4.1 billion more than what he paid 10 months ago, according to an analysis by Linus Wilson, an assistant professor of finance at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.
According to Mr. Wilson’s calculations, Mr. Buffett would realize an annualized return of about 111 percent if he sold his Goldman stake, which is held by his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway.
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Mr. Buffett’s stake in Goldman is now worth $9.1 billion, or about $4.1 billion more than what he paid 10 months ago, according to an analysis by Linus Wilson, an assistant professor of finance at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.
According to Mr. Wilson’s calculations, Mr. Buffett would realize an annualized return of about 111 percent if he sold his Goldman stake, which is held by his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway.
Read the entire story
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