In case somebody wants to hear from Alan Greenspan again

(CNBC.com)

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the US is “no where near the bottom” of the housing slump and is “right on the brink” of a recession.

In an exclusive interview on CNBC, Greenspan said the US economy is holding up “rather well” considering the “extraordinary pressures from the financial sector.” But he added that a recession appears inevitable.

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U.S. Recession May Have Started at End of 2007, Revisions Show

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may have tipped into a recession in the last three months of 2007 as consumer spending slowed more than previously estimated and the housing slump worsened, revised government figures showed. Read entire article

Cramer calls market bottom? Write this date down for future reference

"Yes the market has bottomed". If you thought you heard Cramer call a bottom during Tuesday’s Mad Money, you were right. “It smells to me like something, in fact many things,” he said, “have at last changed for the better.” “I am indeed sticking my neck out right here, right now,” Cramer continued, “declaring emphatically that I believe the market will not revisit the panicked lows it hit on July 15".... (CNBC.com)

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"The no-loss sell rule"

Commentary: What if we tried a new strategy in the next six months?

What follows is not a real conversation that recently took place in the Oval Office. The President of the United States: Gentlemen, I've only got a few months left in office, and this banking and credit crisis is not the way I want to go out. The reason I've called you here is to tell me what you've done to get us out of this mess and what strategery we need to make it through the next six months (Marketwatch.com-David Weidner)

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"I Said What?"

A look back at nine unforgettable statements by bank chief executives who would strike them from the record if they could. (Portfolio.com)

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Nozzle Rage!

Funny video from The Big Picture Blog

Watch it here

U.S. Profits May Drop Most Since at Least 1998, Led by Lehman

Profits at U.S. companies may have dropped the most in at least a decade last quarter after credit writedowns triggered a combined $7.43 billion loss at Merrill Lynch & Co. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (Bloomberg)

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Big Bankruptcies Are Piling Up

Mervyn’s and the parent company of Bennigan’s both filed for bankruptcy protection yesterday, providing more evidence that the pace of corporate flame-outs is accelerating. (NY Times)

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Berkshire's 25% Plunge Has Buffett Bulls Screaming 'Buy'

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway hit a new milestone today (Monday) in a descent that had already put the stock into a 'bear market.' The class A shares closed exactly 25 percent below the all-time high set last December. (CNBC.com)

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Rinse, Lather, Repeat

Rinse. Lather. Repeat. (Big Picture-Barry Ritholtz)

Excellent writeup on the Merrill Lynch situation by Mr. Ritholtz.

A brief review of recent Merrill CEO statements:
1. We don't need capital;
2. We could use some capital, but we won't sell shares, we'll just sell some assets;
3. We need to sell shares and raise capital right away;

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Warren Buffett Gets the Call As Barack Obama Gathers His Economic Advisers Today

Barack Obama calls on Warren Buffett, among others, as he turns his attention to the troubled U.S. economy now that he's returned from his international tour that featured a well-attended speech in Berlin. (CNBC)

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Heebner's CGM Focus May Be Shifting Gears: Chart of the Day

Kenneth Heebner, the money manager once dubbed ``Bigfoot'' for his rapid moves in and out of stocks, may have shifted holdings in his top-ranked CGM Focus Fund. (Bloomberg)

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SEC may force reports of large short holdings: Cox

The staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission is mulling whether to put forward a new rule that would require public disclosure of large short positions, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said Thursday. (Marketwatch)

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U.S. Foreclosures Double as House Prices Decline

U.S. foreclosure filings more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier as falling home prices left borrowers owing more on mortgages than their properties were worth. (Bloomberg)

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The Alpha Hedge Fund Hall of Fame

When it comes to sheer financial power and influence, the hedge fund industry has few rivals. Since 1990, hedge funds have grown from a $40 billion cottage business into a nearly $2 trillion global industry. Rarely does a day pass without a hedge fund manager or two making headlines for their latest exploits. (Institutional Investor)

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Bill Ackman Part II: Eight Easy Steps to Becoming a Short-Seller

So you want to be a short-seller (or an activist). Here are some lessons gleaned from Pershing Square Capital founder William Ackman at our Deals & Deal Makers conference Wednesday. (Wall Street Journal)

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An Investor’s Classic Shows its Value Again

The biggest event in the world of investment publishing this year looks certain to be the re-publication of a book that came out almost three-quarters of a century ago.

Security Analysis, by the late Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, was the tome that launched value investing. It was first published in 1934. McGraw Hill is publishing a sixth edition of their magnum opus later this year, and it is hard to imagine better publicity. (FT.com)

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First Eagle manager Eveillard takes dim view of US stocks, favors Japan

Mutual-fund manager Jean-Marie Eveillard is a veteran buyer of value stocks, and when he surveys the global investment landscape nowadays, years of experience make him a cautious shopper. (Marketwatch.com)

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Ron Muhlenkamp's review of events that impacted the markets during the past quarter.

The pain continues. The focus has shifted somewhat from financial concerns to the price of commodities, particularly energy and food. (Muhlenkamp.com-Quarterly Client Letter)

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Roubini Video Interview: Economic Armageddon?

Roubini's thoughts on the economic recession and the stock market (Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor)

Payouts in Peril

How desparate are major banking institutions to preserve capital? Let’s put it this way: 19 financial-services firms in the S&P 500 have reduced their dividends in 2008, and the total dollar value of those dividend reductions exceeds the additional dividends from the 165 companies that have boosted dividends in 2008. (Wall St. Journal)

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Immelt: US Faces 'Tough Times,' Global Growth Strong

U.S. consumers are going to continue to feel pain until housing prices stabilize, even though global growth remains mostly strong, General Electric Chairman Jeff Immelt said.

Immelt made the comments as GE announced an $8 billion partnership with Abu Dhabi investment agency Mubdala Development that he said would allow the conglomerate to expand its operations into strong growth markets. (CNBC.com)

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Fannie, Freddie Rescue May Cost Taxpayers $25 Billion, CBO Says

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's rescue package for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will probably cost $25 billion, the Congressional Budget Office said.

``There is a significant chance -- probably better than 50 percent -- that the proposed new Treasury authority would not be used before it expired at the end of December 2009,'' the nonpartisan agency, which provides economic and budget analysis for lawmakers, said in a report today.

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Wachovia Has Record $8.9 Billion Loss, Cuts Dividend

Wachovia Corp., the U.S. bank that hired Treasury Undersecretary Robert Steel as chief executive officer two weeks ago, reported a record quarterly loss of $8.9 billion, slashed the dividend and announced 6,350 job cuts. The stock slumped as much as 10 percent in New York trading. (Bloomberg)

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Remembering John Templeton

Sir John Marks Templeton, investment analyst and philanthropist, died on July 8th, aged 95

...Sir John Templeton spent his life going against the flow. In September 1939, when the war-spooked world was selling, he borrowed $10,000 to buy 100 shares in everything that was trading for less than a dollar a share on the New York Stock Exchange. (The Economist)

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JAM's Investment Outlook-Summer 2008

The second quarter began with investors hoping that the worst of the credit crunch was over and earnings growth would resume in the second half of 2008. The major indices all bounced in April and May only to continue their decline in June (worst June in 78 years according to Dow Jones). The lingering credit crisis coupled with soaring oil prices left the markets with their worst first half since 1970 and essentially testing their 52 week lows.


Read the rest of the Summer 2008 JAM Newsletter