Secular bear, cyclical bull

(marketwatch.com) I'm referring, of course, to the debate over what kind of bull market began on March 9.

If that day represented a once-in-a-generation stock market low -- such as the kind seen in December 1974, for example -- then we're in a secular bull market that can be expected to last for many years and which will eventually take the stock market averages to a final top that is several times current levels.

Or did it mark a mere "cyclical" low, in which our expectations, both in terms of time as well as price, need to be far more modest?

For guidance I turn to Ned Davis, the eponymous head of institutional research firm Ned Davis Research.

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GMO Quarterly Letter (July 2009)

Jeremy Grantham's latest letter!

Read it here

Please Stop With The "Bill Miller Is Back" Stories

(clusterstock.com) Once a media darling, always a media darling, at least in the world of high-profile, money manager gurus.

Today the Journal comes back to Legg Mason manager Bill Miller: "Blindsided by Bear, Mr. Miller Sees Bull."

The subtitle should be: "Long-only, high-beta investor does well when the market goes up."

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Buffett’s Goldman Stake Pays Richly

(nytimes/dealbook blog) Warren E. Buffett showed again why he is known as one of the world’s best investors, thanks in part to another prominent investor, Goldman Sachs.

Mr. Buffett’s stake in Goldman is now worth $9.1 billion, or about $4.1 billion more than what he paid 10 months ago, according to an analysis by Linus Wilson, an assistant professor of finance at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.

According to Mr. Wilson’s calculations, Mr. Buffett would realize an annualized return of about 111 percent if he sold his Goldman stake, which is held by his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway.

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The Joy of Sachs

(nytimes.com) OP/ED from Paul Krugman

The American economy remains in dire straits, with one worker in six unemployed or underemployed. Yet Goldman Sachs just reported record quarterly profits — and it’s preparing to hand out huge bonuses, comparable to what it was paying before the crisis. What does this contrast tell us?

First, it tells us that Goldman is very good at what it does. Unfortunately, what it does is bad for America.

Read the entire editorial

"Goldman Sachs In Talks To Acquire Treasury Department"

Just kidding, but worth a read.

(businessinsider.com)

..........According to Goldman spokesperson Jonathan Hestron, the merger between Goldman and the Treasury Department is "a good fit" because "they're in the business of printing money and so are we."..........

Read the entire story here

First Pacific Advisors' Robert Rodriguez

Consuelo Mack interviews one of the best in the business.

(wealthtrack.com)


This week on WealthTrack's "Great Investors" series: he races Porsches for fun and runs top performing stock and bond funds for his profession. What makes First Pacific Advisors' Robert Rodriguez step on the investment brakes or the accelerator? That's next on Consuelo Mack WealthTrack.
Hello and welcome to this "Great Investors" edition of WealthTrack. I'm Consuelo Mack. This week our great investor is Robert Rodriguez, a maverick money manager who has accomplished a feat no one else has. For the last 25 years, he has run not one but two top performing mutual funds, in not one but two asset classes, a stock fund and a bond fund. As widely followed personal finance columnist Jason Zweig put it, that is the investing equivalent of running two marathons at the same time, which is why Zweig calls him the best fund manager of our time.

Read the transcript here

Daily Show Takes on Lenny Dykstra

(huffingtonpost.com) It was only a matter of time before Jon Stewart -- an unabashed New York Mets fan -- tackled the puzzling rise and spectacular fall of Lenny Dykstra's career as a financial guru. Dykstra, an ex-Mets star, declared bankruptcy last week, after amassing what seemed to be a staggering fortune, including a California home once owned by Wayne Gretzky.

Stewart showed a clip of some of Dykstra's profanity-laden responses his recent financial and legal troubles, and responded with:


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Madoff Is Headed for Prison in Butner, NC, Sources Say

We really do not want Bernie in NC

(cnbc.com) Convicted swindler Bernie Madoff is on his way to federal prison in Butner, NC, where he is sentenced to spend the next 150 years, CNBC has learned.

According to the Federal Bureau of Prisons Web site, the Butner facility houses a total of about 3,400 inmates.

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Investment Outlook-Summer 2009

Read the Investment Outlook-Summer 2009 from Jolley Asset Management, LLC

Go here to read the letter

Monday Interview: Man on the money with Buffett

(ft.com) Wesco Financial’s Pasadena headquarters are a blur of earth tones and cloudless sky. Bathed in southern California sun, the offices hold a glow befitting the gilded career of the company’s chairman, Charlie Munger.

Mr Munger, best known as business partner to Warren Buffett, head of Berkshire Hathaway, is settled deep into his chair. His lips stretched to a thin smile, the 85-year-old billionaire peers through thick glasses.

Over the years, generations of investors, chief executives and journalists have wondered why Mr Munger has stayed happily in the background for almost half a century as Mr Buffett forged a reputation as the world’s greatest stock-picker.

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Who Cares If Bill Miller Is "Back"?

(www.clusterstock.com) Hey hey, look who it is.

"Legendary" fund manager Bill Miller is back. Investor's Business Daily declares it Miller Time, noting that his Value Trust is handily outperforming the S&P 500 this year, up 9%. His Opportunity Fund is up 23%! Nice job to anyone who decided to put their money with the beaten-down start at the end of last year.


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Jim Cramer Is Less Powerful Than Hannah Storm

This one is great....Cramer right there with Willard Scott!

(clusterstock.com) We're checking out Mediaite.com this morning, the new media/news/blog/aggregator/opinion/whatever site from former NBC guy Dan Abrams. They've got some stuff about -- what else -- Sarah Palin and Michael Jackson, but the real draw is their devilish "power grid" for media figures, which ranks everyone in using some homebrewed algorithm designed to ensure maximum linkbaitiness.

The big shock so far: Jim Cramer ranks one slot below Hannah Storm in the TV Anchors/Hosts category. And he's only one slot above Willard Scott!

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U.S. regulators could learn from Canada's banks

(usatoday.com) Our northern neighbor sometimes seems so similar to the United States that it's hard to tell where the USA ends and Canada begins. Here's one way: Canada is the place with healthy banks, taxpayers unscathed by megabillion-dollar bailouts and no need to overhaul financial regulation because it was done right the first time.

As U.S. officials scramble to prevent a crisis sequel, the ability of Canadian banks to navigate the current financial storm is earning global plaudits. The World Economic Forum in October ranked the country's financial institutions No. 1 in the world for solvency. U.S. banks came in 40th, two rungs behind Botswana.

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The Great American Bubble Machine

(rollingstone.com) The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere. The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.

Any attempt to construct a narrative around all the former Goldmanites in influential positions quickly becomes an absurd and pointless exercise, like trying to make a list of everything. What you need to know is the big picture: If America is circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to be that drain — an extremely unfortunate loophole in the system of Western democratic capitalism, which never foresaw that in a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.

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More on Ron Insana's New Stint

(Clusterstock.com) Ron Insana -- the CNBC guy who plays the role of "wise one" because he had a stint in the fund-of-funds game -- has a new newsletter he's pumping with TheStreet.com.

If your the type of investor who thinks that getting Ron Insana's exclusive stock picks will help you make money, and you want to spend hundreds of dollars on that advice then more power to you, the link is here.

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CNBC’s Ron Insana Learns to Beat the Market — With Cramer’s Help

Not sure if this a joke or not, but here it goes

(Wall Street Journal-MarketBeatBlog)

In less than a year, Ron Insana, the CNBC senior analyst, apparently has learned a trick or two to go from money-losing hedge fund manager to sure-fire stock picker.

Insana, you may remember, left CNBC in 2006 to launch his own firm, Insana Capital Partners, which was billed as a fund of hedge funds. He sold the firm last year and went to work at Steven Cohen’s SAC Capital Advisors. Neither venture was terribly successful.

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PIMCO's July Investment Outlook

(PIMCO.com) “Kill the umpire,” the fan cried to open the 1996 baseball season in Cincinnati, and eight pitches later, the man behind the plate, John McSherry, was dead, all 320 pounds of him screaming for more and more oxygen to feed his spastic heart. He’d been killed by a billion molecules of sink-clogging, Drano-resistant cholesterol that fed on his coronary artery and sucked up his life’s blood like a vampire in the heat of the night. The next day Howard Stern had characteristically railed that the antidote was obvious. It was the same for all fat people: “DON’T EAT,” he howled. As if the ump hadn’t known. The fact was, he couldn’t stop. He loved the taste of food – every sugary, fat-ladened, carbohydrated morsel. The first bite was a special ecstasy, as was the last, and everything in between. The man, it seemed, was a Cuisinart with four limbs.

Read all of Bill Gross's letter here