Saturday, August 9, 2008

Mean Street: Improving Your Odds in the Wall Street Casino

(Deal Journal Blog-Wall Street Journal) If you believe in efficient markets, every now and then a pesky question comes up that doesn’t fit neatly into your theory: Like whether the identity of a buyer or seller of a stock really matters.

It’s hard to believe that it doesn’t. The entire stock market has been constructed to conceal the identity of buyers and sellers. And why would there be such a hullaballoo about corporate-insider buying and selling if it didn’t matter?

Yesterday, in response to a column on Fortress Investment Group, a reader wrote, “If a Wall Streeter is selling, you don’t want to be buying. End of story.” And I thought, “Gee, that sounds right.”

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